Effectiveness of a Lockdown Policy During a Global Pandemic

Author(s):

Yung Chin Shih*   Pages 406 - 428 ( 23 )

Abstract:

<p>Background: In 2020, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) a pandemic, many of the public managers faced challenging situations in their cities due to the simultaneous loss of lives and jobs. In this regard, this study aims to propose a concise model that considers variables like the number of deaths, lethality of the virus, number of jobs, and taxes collected by city halls. Our study considers these issues in providing a relevant response and consistent answer to deliberations on the way forward. </P><P> Methods: Mathematical modeling was used to analyze the interaction between the agents involved, and computer simulation was chosen to collect results. </P><P> Results: Changing the lockdown level (fixed and variable), the results of number of deaths per week, the total number of unemployed, cost of companies, and so on are shown. The levels of lockdowns adopted are: fixed (0%, 40%, 80%, 100%) and variable (30% to 60% and 80% to 40%). </P><P> The results show that for the input data considered, the 0% lockdown (LD) policy is more effective for the economy and tax collection and also succeeds in repressing the effects on the number of deaths. The comparison between with pandemic and without pandemic is provided (in percentage). </P><P> Adopting a 0% LD, it appears to be worse in couple of weeks compared to other LD levels with regard to the percentage increase in the number of deaths due to the pandemic virus (in particular, + 626% for the 4th week while + 398% for 100% LD). Fortunately, in absolute numbers this quantity is considered low in relation to the size of the population. The great advantage is seen mainly in tax collection and number of unemployment generated. For a 0% LD, in the worst scenario, the tax collection is reduced by 23.68% in the 8th week, while the worst (100% LD) the drop in tax collection reaches 91.70%. The highest percentage of unemployed generated for 0% LD occurs is in the 16th week, and for the worst LD (100%), the percentage of generation of unemployed number reaches 106.64%. The number of deaths caused by unemployment, for the worst case of 0% LD also occurs in the 16th week, with 46.65% while for the 100% LD, the percentage of deaths has increased by 97.48%. </P><P> Conclusion: This study shows that implementing the lockdown did not bring expected benefits, because instead of reducing the number of deaths due to the COVID-19, individuals tend to die more from other causes.</p>

Keywords:

Modelling, simulation, economic impact, health impact, purchasing power, pandemic, lockdown.

Affiliation:

Department of Production Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Ponta Grossa, Parana

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